Group Betting

The best European Championships to study are the four since 1996 as that is when the current four groups of four scedule was established.

GOALS IN THE GROUP STAGE

Number Of Goals In The Group Stage

Analysis

The highest scoring group since 1996 was in Euro 2004’s Group B which contained 20 goals, there were two games with four goals in that group and one game with six goals. The lowest scoring group since 1996 was Group B at Euro 2008 where just ten goals were scored, that group had just one game that finished with over 2.5 goals.

At Euro 2012 we expect there to be a few more goals than 2008 but we are unlikely to see a record number of goals go in during the group stage. A few years ago many teams were playing with quite negative tactics but in the past couple of seasons teams seem to be taking a few more risks again meaning more goals are being scored.

Recommendation: Expect around 60 goals in the group stage with a top scoring group of around 18 and a lowest scoring group of around 12.

Total Goals In Each Round Of Matches

Under/Over 2.5 Goals In Each Round Of Matches

Analysis

In three out of the last four European Championships less goals have been scored in the first round of group games as opposed to the second and the third and in three of the last four tournaments there were also more goals scored in the third round of matches than the previous two. This means we should be expecting the amount of goals to increase in each round of games in most years.

Backers of under 2.5 goals have had some great results in the first round of matches in 1996 and 2008 when results were massively in their favour but there wasn’t much in it in 2000 and 2004. From recent results we can see there is very little edge to be had in the second round of matches with under 2.5 backers often slightly having the edge but there is no clear trend here. It often pays to start backing over 2.5 goals in the final round of matches, the only time in the last four tournaments that a loss would have been made following this strategy was in 2008 when there were six under 2.5 goals game but it is worth noting that many of those contained exactly two goals and it might be best to treat that as a bit of an anomaly with the stats for the previous three tournaments being so strong.

Recommendation: Lean towards under 2.5 goals in the first round of group games and back over 2.5 goals in the last round of group matches.

When To Back The Draw In Groups

Number Of Draws In Each Round Of Matches

Analysis

The stats are not hugely persuasive for following draws in a particular round of matches but it seems the first round of matches are most likely to end in a draw with teams not wanting to lose their first game resulting in many closely matched, low scoring games. This is backed up by the stats with ten draws in the first round of the last four tournaments. In the same period there were eight draws in the second round out of a possible twenty four draws meaning one in four of the second round matches end in a draw. There were just five draws in the past four European Championships in the final round of group games which is remarkably low and this shows that sides are often desperate for points with a draw often not enough for most teams.

Recommendation: The first and second round of matches look much more likely to contain draws and draws should only be backed in the third round of games if extremely confident.

Clean Sheets During The Group Stage

Analysis

With only one team in the past four European Championships managing to go the entire group stage without conceding a goal (Germany who were the eventual winners of Euro ’96) it seems best to expect teams to concede at least one goal in the group stage. In fact, only a further four teams in the same tournaments managed to go the entire group stage without conceding more than one goal (and one of those teams was eliminated) so most teams, even the qualifiers, will concede two or more goals.

The most goals a team has conceded whilst still qualifying for the knockout stages since Euro ’96 was Yugoslavia who conceded seven goals before finishing runners up in Group C in 2000 whilst Czech Republic were ‘next best’ when they went on to reach the final despite conceding six goal in Group C in 1996.

Recommendation: When backing correct scores or goals conceded for likely qualifiers in the group stage expect teams to concede at least one goal but more likely two or more.

The Best Group Performers

Teams To Get Maximum Points

Analysis

In 1996 no team qualified with maximum points (all four group winners gained seven points) but since then at least one team has qualified with three wins in the group stage, and on two occasions three teams have all managed to get maximum points so we should probably expect at least two teams to pick up nine points in the group stage this time around.

The amount of teams that have managed to pick up maximum points is perhaps a little surprising as the groups at the European Championships are often quite a bit more competitive than they are at the World Cup where more ‘minnows’ qualify.

It is worth noting that the teams that have picked up maximum points have mostly been household names (Holland, Spain, Italy, Portugal) but Croatia and Czech Republic have also managed to gain nine points in a group stage in recent years so you shouldn’t completely rule out the teams that are in the next tier down from getting maximum points, although predicting which ones will might prove difficult.

Recommendation: Look to back two of the five or six favourites to pick up maximum points in their group.

The Poorest Group Performers

Teams To Get Zero Points

Analysis

It is not uncommon to assume the worst teams in the group will lose all three of their matches and will go home with zero points but there are very few ‘bad’ sides that qualify for the European Championships and recent evidence suggests that there will always be a team who goes with no points but in most tournaments there will only be one team that doesn’t get any points and if it is more than one, it certainly should only be a maximum of two.

The teams that have picked up zero points in the group stages of recent European Championships would mostly be considered the weaker sides at the European Championships, of the teams above Denmark would probably be considered the biggest nation (although you could argue that Greece should have done better as European Champions in 2008). It is worth noting that Denmark’s group in 2000 was Holland (eventual semi finalists), France (eventual winners) and Czech Republic (the finalists at the previous European Championships) so their performance in 2000 wouldn’t have been too hard to predict.

Recommendation: Back just one team at the European Championships to gain zero points at the group stage. This team should be one of the smaller nations and should be in a very tough group that contains no other ‘minnows’.

Points For Each Group Finishing Position

Group Winners' Points Total

Group Runners Up Points Total

Group Third Place Points Total

Group Fourth Place Points Total

Analysis

You can nearly always expect at least one team to pick up maximum points when winning their European Championships group and it is not uncommon for three teams to pick up nine points in their group. You shouldn’t be put off backing a second favourite to pick up nine points if you really fancy them, in 2008 Croatia picked up nine points despite the presence of Germany in their group, in 2004 Czech Republic gained maximum points despite group games against both Germany and Holland whilst in 2000 Portugal got nine points from a group containing England and Germany.

The group runners up are always going to pick up between four and six points and judging by previous European Championships it looks a bad idea to back teams to pick up exactly five points. In the last four European Championships only three times have gained five points, two of them finished second and one of them finished third. This means that all teams who finish second are almost certain to get four points or six points and there should be a bit of value in backing the team you fancy to come second in the group to gain four or six points (depending on the strength in depth in their group).

In 1996 all of the teams who finished third in the groups picked up four points but since then just two out of the twelve third placed teams have picked up four points. Just one team in four European Championships has failed to qualify after picking up five points which means the team that finishes third in the group are most likely to get three points or less. In recent European Championships only Austria in 2008 came third with one point, they came third on goal difference and that eventuality looks very rare so expect third placed teams to get two or three points with perhaps one team gaining four points, but only in a group where the bottom team will get one or no points.

It is easy to assume the bottom placed team will lose all their games, in the last four European Championships five out of sixteen bottom placed teams have failed to pick up a point. It is worth noting that the most common return from a bottom placed team is one point, that has happened on eight occasions in the last four European Championships and for the past four tournaments exactly two teams each tournament has gained one point. This means you should be looking at two bottom placed teams getting one point, at least one getting no points and the other most likely getting three, if not getting two or zero.

Recommendation: Don’t be put off backing second favourites to get maximum points and don’t back more than one team to get six points.

Recommendation: Back the most likely runners up in stronger groups to get four points and weaker groups to get six points.

Recommendation: Back the most likely third placed teams to pick up two or three points, only backing one of them to get four points if the group contains a ‘whipping boy’.

Recommendation: Back two of the most likely bottom placed teams to get two points, at least one team to get no points and the other most likely bottom team to probably get three points, if not two or no points.

Euro 2012 - Group A

Group Betting

	Odds	Bookie
Russia	2.50
Poland	4.00
Czech Republic	5.00
Greece	5.50

Euro 2012 - Group B

Group Betting

	Odds	Bookie
Germany	2.20
Holland	3.00
Portugal	5.50
Denmark	21.00

Euro 2012 - Group C

Group Betting

	Odds	Bookie
Spain	1.57
Italy	4.50
Croatia	8.00
Rep of Ireland	19.00

Euro 2012 - Group D

Group Betting

	Odds	Bookie
England	2.80
France	2.80
Ukraine	5.50
Sweden	7.50