Match Betting

European Championship Matches – Key Stats

The table below highlights the key stats that will help your match betting at the European Championships. The stats for the same tournament can vary greatly between the knockout stage and the group stage and this is not coincidence, there are real reasons behind these differences.

The below stats represent 90 minutes play only as these are all that matter for match betting whilst we only go back to 1996 because that is when the current European Championships tournament format was introduced.

European Championship Matches – Goals Per Game

In each of the last four European Championships the goals per game ratio has dipped considerably when the tournament reaches the knockout stage and there are some key reasons for this.

First of all there is ability. The group stage goal stats are skewed somewhat by several weaker teams conceding plenty of goals. When we reach the knockout stages the teams and in particular the defences are better, therefore the amount of goals in each match is reduced.

Tactics also play their part, in the knockout stage there is more at stake therefore teams often set themselves up more defensively and they are also more careful and considered in their approach play. This is one reason why major finals are usually very low scoring.

There should be no problems with backing many of the group games to be over 2.5 goals but it is usually profitable to switch those bets to under 2.5 goals in the knockout stage, where 1-0 and 2-0 bets should also be considered on the better teams to win their matches.

European Championship Matches – Backing The Draw

In the group stages of European Championships since 1996 there have been between three and eight draws out of the twenty four games. This is a relatively low number of draws and in two of those four tournaments there have been either as many draws in the group stage as the knockout stage (despite twenty one less matches in the knockout stage) or at least only game in it.

Unless the game in the group stage really does look a nailed on draw, or in some cases the draw would see both teams go through in the final group game, it is probably best to avoid betting on that result in the group games.

On the hand, in the knockout stage it would appear that the draw offers the best value. There will be some games with mismatched opposition where the draw makes no appeal but generally we are looking at three out of the seven knockout games ending in a draw. In 1996 five out of the seven knockout games ended in a draw, which will have made draw backers a nice profit.

European Championship Matches – Total Goals

In the current format that has been used since 1996 it doesn’t seem there is too much to suggest that group games should favour under or over 2.5 goals, In two of the four tournaments more group games had under 2.5 goals, in the other two over 2.5 goals results were more common in the group games.

In the groups the under 2.5 goals results are not usually evenly spread out between each group, there will often be high scoring groups and low scoring groups so if you can identify the low scoring groups early on in the tournament or preferably before the tournament starts then you can make plenty of money backing under 2.5 goals. The same sentiment applies to the higher scoring groups and backing over 2.5 goals.

In Euro 96, Euro 2000 and Euro 2004 the percentage of games finishing with under 2.5 goals increased dramatically when the knockout stages began. In 1996 six of the seven matches had under 2.5 goals, in 2000 under 2.5 goals backers in the knockout stages were rewarded five times and it was the same story again in 2004. In 2008 it dipped slightly and four of the seven games had under 2.5 goals, meaning over half the games still had under 2.5 goals in the knockout stage, but for once the percentage of games finishing with under 2.5 goals actually went down when the knockout stage began.

European Championship Matches – Clean Sheets

The stats for clean sheets kept in European Championships Group games are very strong, in three out of the last four tournaments exactly fifteen clean sheets have been kept in the group stage and in the other tournament (Euro 2004) there were thirteen clean sheets in the group stage.

The fact that this stat is so consistent means real notice should be taken of it when predicting scores and goals in each match. The stat represents a fairly low amount of clean sheets suggesting that around half the games will be won to nil and that there will also be a few goalless draws. Therefore in just under half the group games both teams will score.

In the knockout stage there is usually between four and seven clean sheets out of the seven games, meaning more fairly regularly a team will be winning their knockout game to nil. On average there should be roughly one clean sheet per match but remember that some games will end 0-0 so that takes up two clean sheets. In reality we are probably looking at around three or four games our of the seven having a victory with a clean sheet and another game or two finishing goalless.